(left to right) Erin Reddy, Dee Campbell and Helen McCarthy at the Central Count Centre in Dublin Castle, Dublin as votes are continued to be counted in the referendum on same-sex marriage.
Congratulations to the Republic of Ireland polling companies who forecast the same sex marriage referendum result correctly.
We got it wrong. Why?
The signs were there. Indeed, they were widely reported: how David Cameron trounced Ed Miliband as the public’s preferred Prime Minister; how economic optimism was returning, and reinforcing the Conservatives’ reputation. One YouGov poll five weeks ago generated the Sunday Times front page headline: “Tories best for workers, say voters”.
YouGov’s latest poll in Scotland suggests that some Labour MPs, and possibly two Liberal Democrats, might be saved by tactical voting.
Our overall voting figures, published in today’s Times, indicate a near wipe out. These are based on the conventional way of projecting votes into seats, which is to assume an identical swing to the SNP in every constituency. However, in the same survey, YouGov asked a series of questions for Channel 4 News about tactical voting; and this makes a significant difference.
SNP remains on course for a landslide - by Peter Kellner (YouGov)
I have seen figures like these before. A once-dominant party condemned by voters; its leader rejected; its remaining supporters lukewarm - and facing a popular, fresh-faced rival. This was the story of the Conservatives across Britain in 1997, and it looks like the story of Labour in Scotland at the coming election.
YouGov have produced a wonderful composite of all their February 2013 polling to try and give a realistic picture of which bits of the electorate are behind UKIP’s polling surge into double figures , a trend which was clear well before the party pushed the Tories into third place in the Eastleigh by-election last week. There are reasons why one needs to be slightly cautious about polling composites, but with 28,944 total respondents and 2788 UKIP supporting respondents, this is a significant piece of opinion research.