We are now underway with our April NI-Wide Opinion Panel Poll which will be the final one before the 7th May UK General Election - results in the Belfast Telegraph at start of May. As such, and as a way of preparing for this final pre-election Opinion Panel Poll, we thought it would be good to put together the results of our January, February, and March Opinion Panel Polls in one results table. This will allow us to see the trends up and down, and enable a good comparison for our April Opinion Panel results and forecast when they are published at the start of May.
NORTHERN IRELAND WESTMINSTER ELECTION FORECAST 2015 -LUCIDTALK OPINION PANEL (March 2015).
Following our February Opinion Panel poll (results on DebateNI - Belfast Telegraph web site), we now present the results of our March Panel poll. This is part of our program of monthly Panel polls building-up to the Westminster election on 7th May. The data from each monthly Opinion Panel poll is entered into our prediction models, which then forecast the results for each of Northern Ireland's 18 Westminster constituencies, and track any trends up and down. This is similar to the prediction models we ran for last May's European election when three weeks before the election day we (in the Belfast Telegraph) predicted Sinn Fein for a 26.2% vote share with the actual result coming in at 25.5%; and the DUP for a 20.8% share with the actual result turning out to be 20.9%. So (in our humble opinion!) our Euro election prediction models weren't that bad!
YouGov’s latest poll in Scotland suggests that some Labour MPs, and possibly two Liberal Democrats, might be saved by tactical voting.
Our overall voting figures, published in today’s Times, indicate a near wipe out. These are based on the conventional way of projecting votes into seats, which is to assume an identical swing to the SNP in every constituency. However, in the same survey, YouGov asked a series of questions for Channel 4 News about tactical voting; and this makes a significant difference.