NORTHERN IRELAND WESTMINSTER ELECTION FORECAST 2015 -LUCIDTALK OPINION PANEL (March 2015).
Following our February Opinion Panel poll (results on DebateNI - Belfast Telegraph web site), we now present the results of our March Panel poll. This is part of our program of monthly Panel polls building-up to the Westminster election on 7th May. The data from each monthly Opinion Panel poll is entered into our prediction models, which then forecast the results for each of Northern Ireland's 18 Westminster constituencies, and track any trends up and down. This is similar to the prediction models we ran for last May's European election when three weeks before the election day we (in the Belfast Telegraph) predicted Sinn Fein for a 26.2% vote share with the actual result coming in at 25.5%; and the DUP for a 20.8% share with the actual result turning out to be 20.9%. So (in our humble opinion!) our Euro election prediction models weren't that bad!
We are now underway with our April NI-Wide Opinion Panel Poll which will be the final one before the 7th May UK General Election - results in the Belfast Telegraph at start of May. As such, and as a way of preparing for this final pre-election Opinion Panel Poll, we thought it would be good to put together the results of our January, February, and March Opinion Panel Polls in one results table. This will allow us to see the trends up and down, and enable a good comparison for our April Opinion Panel results and forecast when they are published at the start of May.
UPPER BANN AND SOUTH BELFAST ARE THE BIG CHANGES
So we've now got the final results from our April Opinion Panel Poll, and the last before the general election on 7th May. If you've been following our monthly polls since January you will know that our Northern Ireland (NI) Opinion Panel has 440 participants and is carefully constructed to provide an accurate representation of Northern Ireland opinion - via gender, area of residence, age-group, community background, socio-economic group, and employment group. The opinion panel has a pool of approximately 1,200 members who regularly take part in LucidTalk poll projects, and for this project a representative sample of 440 opinions has been collated.
(left to right) Erin Reddy, Dee Campbell and Helen McCarthy at the Central Count Centre in Dublin Castle, Dublin as votes are continued to be counted in the referendum on same-sex marriage.
Congratulations to the Republic of Ireland polling companies who forecast the same sex marriage referendum result correctly.