PRE EU REFERENDUM POLLING - accurate to within 1%

LucidTalk's last pre EU Referendum poll, which was held last week (15th to 17th June - 1,075 NI representative sample), predicted a NI REMAIN victory with that actual poll result forecasting 52% REMAIN to 38% LEAVE with 10% undecideds - as published in the NI SUN newspaper on Monday 20th June. This translated into a final forecast of 57% REMAIN to 43% LEAVE - if we exclude the undecideds (or we assume in the end the undecideds split 50/50 in the actual vote).

The final NI result was 56% Remain, 44% Leave - so LucidTalk, with their last pre EU Referendum poll, forecast the NI result to within 1% of error.

Commenting on their NI EU Referendum polling, LucidTalk Managing Director Bill White said 'This is a very accurate polling performance. We have been running regular monthly NI EU Referendum Tracker polls with our NI representative Opinion Panel since last December, and we recorded the steady trend towards Leave in all our polls since January. Not to the extent that Leave were ever going to win in Northern Ireland, but all our monthly polls tracked the trends accurately and steadied at around 56-57% Remain (excluding undecideds) in both our May and mid-June polls i.e. our last two polls before the actual referendum'.
Bill White added 'This proves that our established NI Opinion Panel which we regularly use for our online polling, is now the gold standard for accurately ascertaining NI opinion. In addition, it's been proved from the national UK Referendum result that robust, professional, and targeted online polling, is going to be the general gold standard for polling in the future. Remember the majority of the national UK online polls consistently predicted a Brexit, albeit within the context of a close result - and the UK result was close'.