Just to get the build-up going to the upcoming Westminster election on 7th May we’ll be running our Opinion Panel polling every month from February to May. We will be feeding this data into our prediction models, and then projecting the results for each of Northern Ireland’s 18 Westminster constituencies, and tracking any trends up and down.
This will be similar to the prediction models we ran for last May’s European election when three weeks before that election (in the Belfast Telegraph) we e.g. predicted Sinn Fein for a 26.2% vote share with the actual result coming in at 25.5%; and the DUP prediction was 20.8% with the actual result turning out to be 20.9%. So (in our humble opinion!) our Euro election prediction models weren’t that bad!
Our first Opinion Panel poll, results, and analysis is now on the Belfast Telegraph’s DebateNI political web site