LucidTalk run regular Northern Ireland (NI) Opinion Panel 'Tracker Polls' to constantly gauge and estimate NI public opinion on a range of issues e.g. politics, business, consumer, lifestyle etc., usually on a quarterly basis. Here we present the results and report from our Winter 2025 Poll, run in association with the BELFAST TELEGRAPH. Poll questions covered Political-Party support – specifically for a NI Assembly Election, NI Government Minister ratings, NI Border Poll – Timing, and what way would you vote?, NI Border Poll issues, NI politicians visiting the White House, Climate change, and Immunity from prosecution for security forces. Poll-period was 14th February – 17th February 2025, 3,001 responses were received, and 1,050/1,051 responses were used in the final weighted NI representative sample, producing NI Representative results to within an error of only +/-2.3%. The poll results were reported extensively in the BELFAST TELEGRAPH (from 22nd February), and were also covered on U105 radio, and other media.
The polls are regular 'Tracker' polls of the established LT Northern Ireland Opinion Panel (now 16,000+ members). The LucidTalk Opinion Panel consists of Northern Ireland residents (age 18+) and is balanced by gender, age-group, area of residence, and community background, in order to be demographically representative of Northern Ireland. For this poll-project our NI-Wide and representative Opinion Panel was targeted to participate, and 3,001 full responses were received. Then after data auditing to ensure: (a) 'one person-one vote' responses, and (b) the collation of a robust, accurate, and balanced representative NI sample, - 1,050/1,051 responses full responses were recorded and used for the final representative NI sample. All results are accurate in terms of representing NI opinion to within an error of +/-2.3% at 95% confidence.
LT NI ‘Tracker’ poll – Winter 2025 (Poll Period: 14th – 17th February 2025):
...here are the results, and results-graphics, from the main “‘Who are you going to vote for?” and “NI Government Ministerial ratings” poll questions…
QUESTION 1: NI ASSEMBLY ELECTION: If a NI Assembly Election were to be held tomorrow which political party would you vote for as FIRST PREFERENCE?
Full NI representative results (inc. comparisons to the LT Autumn 2024 poll results): CLICK HERE
Full NI representative results NI Assembly Election – MAIN RESULTS GRAPHIC: CLICK HERE
QUESTION 2: NI GOVERNMENT MINISTER RATINGS: How do you rate the following NI Government Ministers (from 0% to 100%)?
Full NI Government Minister ‘ratings’ representative results + analysis by political groups): CLICK HERE
QUESTION 4: MAIN NI Border Referendum Poll Question: If there were a referendum (i.e. a ‘Border poll’) on the constitutional position of Northern Ireland within the week, - How would you vote? Full NI representative results (inc. comparison to the LT Winter 2024 ‘same question’ poll results): CLICK HERE
Full results, and full demographic analyses, for all the poll-project questions can be found in the main full data-tables results - Poll-Project Data-Tables results report: CLICK HERE
- (will appear in the centre, or at bottom left, in excel/csv format).
Within the results data-tables each individual poll question can be accessed via the Tabs at the bottom of the Spreadsheet - For each individual poll question, demographic analyses are shown by: Gender, Age-Group, Socio-Economic Group, NI Residence Area (see description within the enclosed data-tables), 2022 NI Assembly Election - Past-Vote, NI Voting Block (Unionists, Nationalists/Republicans, etc.), and Community (religion).
The publication of these data-tables is a requirement and regulation of the British Polling Council (BPC).
NB Subsamples from any cross-breaks or 'drill-downs' into the data, will be subject to a higher margin of error, and conclusions drawn from cross-breaks with small sub-samples should be treated with caution. Plus, any conclusions drawn from any demographic/cross-break analyses should be treated as indicative only, as they are subject to a higher margin of error than the main NI-Wide poll results which are NI representative to +/-2.3%.
Methodology
Polling was carried out by Belfast based polling and market research company LucidTalk. The project was carried out online from 14th to 17th February 2025. The project targeted the established LucidTalk NI-Wide Opinion Panel (16,000+ members) which is balanced by gender, age-group, area of residence, and community background, in order to be demographically representative of Northern Ireland (NI). 3,001 full responses were considered in terms of the final results. Then a data auditing process ensured all completed poll-survey responses were genuine 'one-person, one-vote' responses, and the base data-results were weighted to 17 NI demographics, to ensure a robust NI representative sample of opinion. This produced a final 1,050/1,051 response dataset which is demographically representative sample of NI - producing results representative of NI Opinion to within an error of +/-2.3% at 95% confidence. For detail of project methodology, see enclosed report.
Media Coverage
..and all BELFAST TELEGRAPH articles and commentaries re. the poll, and previous LucidTalk polls, can be found on the LucidTalk section of the BELFAST TELEGRAPH website.
Some key Belfast Telegraph articles:
NI Government Minister ratings (Suzanne Breen): CLICK HERE
Proposed rise in MLA salaries (Andrew Madden): CLICK HERE
NI Border Referendum poll results (Suzanne Breen): CLICK HERE
Why do different polls say different things on Irish unity vote? (Bill White): CLICK HERE
Plus a Belfast Telegraph podcast, re. the poll, hosted by Ciaran Dunbar (Belfast Telegraph), with Suzanne Breen (Belfast Telegraph – Political Editor): CLICK HERE
Plus… - Review of all poll results on Slugger O’Toole (Michael Hehir): CLICK HERE
LucidTalk - Professional Credentials:
LucidTalk (LT) is a member of the British Polling Council (BPC), and LT (and/or its officers) are members of the UK Market research Society (UK MRS), and ESOMAR (European Society of Market Research organisations). The BPC are the primary UK professional body ensuring professional Polling and Market Research standards.
LucidTalk is the only NI (and Ireland) based polling/market research company who are members of the BPC.
All LT polling, research, sampling, methodologies used, market research projects and results and reports production are, and have been, carried out to the professional standards laid down by the BPC and also (as published) of AIMRO (Association of Irish Market Research Organisations).
LucidTalk is a member of The British Polling Council and abides by its regulations: http://www.britishpollingcouncil.org
For further information, please contact: Bill White at LucidTalk: 07711 450545
Email: bill.white@lucidtalk.co.uk