LucidTalk run regular Northern Ireland (NI) Opinion Panel 'Tracker Polls' to constantly gauge and estimate NI public opinion on a range of issues e.g. politics, business, consumer, lifestyle etc., usually on a quarterly basis. Here we present the results and report from our regular quarterly NI ‘Tracker’ poll – Spring 2023, run in association with the BELFAST TELEGRAPH. Poll questions covered political-party support, political leader ratings, Windsor framework, Water charges, and the Monarchy. Poll-period was 21st – 24th April 2023, 3,557 responses were received, and 1,040 responses were used in the final weighted NI representative sample, producing NI Representative results to within an error of only +/-2.3%. The poll results were reported extensively in the BELFAST TELEGRAPH (29th April – 1st May), and were also covered on U105 radio, and other media – see below for links to some of the media coverage.
The polls are regular 'Tracker' polls of the established LT Northern Ireland Opinion Panel (now 14,600+ members). The LucidTalk Opinion Panel consists of Northern Ireland residents (age 18+) and is balanced by gender, age-group, area of residence, and community background, in order to be demographically representative of Northern Ireland. For this poll-project our NI-Wide and representative Opinion Panel was targeted to participate, and 3,557 full responses were received. Then after data auditing to ensure: (a) 'one person-one vote' responses, and (b) the collation of a robust, accurate, and balanced representative NI sample, - 1,040 responses full responses were recorded and used for the final representative NI sample. All results are accurate in terms of representing NI opinion to within an error of +/-2.3% at 95% confidence.
LT ‘Spring’ 2023 NI ‘Tracker’ poll (Poll Period: 21st – 24th April 2023): ...here are the poll questions from the project, and the main results graphics for the first two poll questions i.e. the main poll questions –
QUESTION 1: If a NI Assembly Election were to be held tomorrow which political party would you vote for as FIRST PREFERENCE?
Full NI representative results: CLICK HERE
MAIN RESULTS GRAPHIC: CLICK HERE
RESULTS ‘Tracker’ GRAPHIC (comparison to previous polls): CLICK HERE
QUESTION 2: How do you rate the following political party leaders in terms of their overall performance in the last few months?
Full NI representative results – NI Political Leaders: CLICK HERE
MAIN RESULTS GRAPHIC – Political Leader Ratings: CLICK HERE
Good/Very Good scores analysed by NI political groupings – NI Political Leaders: CLICK HERE
Bad/Very Bad scores analysed by NI political groupings – NI Political Leaders: CLICK HERE
Full project report inc. project background, methodology, and all results graphics (Total results - 7 poll questions, and main demographics): CLICK HERE
Full results, and full demographic analyses, for all the poll-project questions can be found in the main full data-tables results - Poll-Project Data-Tables results report: CLICK HERE
- (will appear in the centre, or at bottom left, in excel/csv format).
Within the results data-tables each individual poll question can be accessed via the Tabs at the bottom of the Spreadsheet - For each individual poll question, demographic analyses are shown by: Gender, Age-Group, Socio-Economic Group, NI Residence Area (see description within the enclosed data-tables), 2022 NI Assembly Election - Past-Vote, Community (religion), NI Political group, and 2016 EU Referendum - Past-Vote.
The publication of these data-tables is a requirement and regulation of the British Polling Council (BPC).
NB Subsamples from any cross-breaks or 'drill-downs' into the data, will be subject to a higher margin of error, and conclusions drawn from cross-breaks with small sub-samples should be treated with caution.
Methodology
Polling was carried out by Belfast based polling and market research company LucidTalk. The project was carried out online from 21st to 24th April 2023. The project targeted the established LucidTalk NI-Wide Opinion Panel (14,000+ members) which is balanced by gender, age-group, area of residence, and community background, in order to be demographically representative of Northern Ireland (NI). 3,557 full responses were considered in terms of the final results. Then a data auditing process ensured all completed poll-survey responses were genuine 'one-person, one-vote' responses, and the base data-results were weighted to 17 NI demographics, to ensure a robust NI representative sample of opinion. This final 1,040 response dataset is a demographically representative sample of Northern Ireland - producing results representative of NI Opinion to within an error of +/-2.3% at 95% confidence. For detail of project methodology, see enclosed reports.
Media Coverage
BELFAST TELEGRAPH (Suzanne Breen: Political-Party support - Poll results and analysis): CLICK HERE
BELFAST TELEGRAPH (Suzanne Breen: Support for the Monarchy - Poll results and analysis): CLICK HERE
BELFAST TELEGRAPH (Allison Morris: Monarchy and Sinn Fein - Poll results and analysis): CLICK HERE
BELFAST TELEGRAPH (Lindy McDowell: Coronation and Sinn Fein’s attendance): CLICK HERE
BELFAST TELEGRAPH (Suzanne Breen: Reform of Stormont - Poll results and analysis): CLICK HERE
BELFAST TELEGRAPH (Bill White: NI Local Government elections + Poll results and analysis): CLICK HERE
BELFAST TELEGRAPH (Liam Tunney: Introduction of Water Charges - Poll results and analysis): CLICK HERE
BELFAST TELEGRAPH (Brett Campbell: DUP and Windsor Framework - Poll results and analysis): CLICK HERE
BELFAST TELEGRAPH (Malachi O’Doherty: Monarchy and Republicans - Poll results and analysis): CLICK HERE
BELFAST TELEGRAPH (Podcast: with Alex Kane – Commentator, and Bill White - LucidTalk): CLICK HERE
..and all BELFAST TELEGRAPH articles and commentaries re. the poll can be found on the
BELFAST TELEGRAPH, and other media websites.
GUERNSEY PRESS (Review of main poll results): CLICK HERE
The INDEPENDENT (Review of main poll results): CLICK HERE
REUTERS (Review of main poll results): CLICK HERE
U105 (LucidTalk - Radio interview on U105 - podcast 4936): CLICK HERE
LucidTalk - Professional Credentials:
LucidTalk (LT) is a member of the British Polling Council (BPC), the UK Market research Society (UK MRS), and ESOMAR (European Society of Market Research organisations). The BPC are the primary UK professional body ensuring professional Polling and Market Research standards.
LucidTalk is the only NI (and Ireland) based polling/market research company who are members of the BPC.
All LT polling, research, sampling, methodologies used, market research projects and results and reports production are, and have been, carried out to the professional standards laid down by the BPC and also (as published) of AIMRO (Association of Irish Market Research Organisations).
LucidTalk is a member of The British Polling Council and abides by its regulations: http://www.britishpollingcouncil.org
For further information, please contact: Bill White at LucidTalk: 07711 450545
Email: bill.white@lucidtalk.co.uk